Interactive comment on “Potential Influences of Neglecting Aerosol Effects on the NCEP GFS

نویسنده

  • Mengjiao Jiang
چکیده

This study evaluated the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast bias in different precipitation (light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain and very heavy rain) by comparing the ground-based observations in three countries. Then the correlations between GFS precipitation forecast errors and the aerosol loading are investigated extensively to examine the potential impact of neglecting aerosol-cloud-interaction (ACI) on the operational rainfall forecast. The main result is that the GFS overestimates light rain, and underestimates moderate rain, heavy rain, and very heavy rain, which is partly due to neglecting the ACI process in the GFS. The study fits within the scope of the journal, and the information and arguments are generally clear enough to be followed. Although the current study does not fully establish the causal relationship between the ACI and the bias of precipitation forecast of GFS

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تاریخ انتشار 2017